• Post category:StudyBullet-3
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Learn to develop and back-test sentiment and technical models to forecast the trend of assets with real applications.

What you will learn

 

Understand the COT report and its strength in predicting the market’s trend.

 

Understand basic concepts of Descriptive Statistics and their implications in trading.

 

Learn how to develop and use a COT model from scratch.

 

Learn how to analyze markets using Technical Analysis.

 

Learn how to combine both types of analyses to produce robust forecasts.

 

Back-test step-by-step the advanced strategies presented through Python.

 

Learn about other sentiment indicators (ISM PMI, VIX, Put/Call ratio, etc) and back-test other strategies.

Description

It’s time Market Sentiment analysis got a proper step-by-step guide. Why stick only with Technical and Fundamental Analysis when you are trading the markets? Adding this powerful tool to your arsenal will greatly enhance your skills and undoubtedly improve your risk-adjusted returns.  

Whether you are just beginning or you’re already an experimented user of market sentiment analysis wanting to discover new techniques in this exciting field, then search no more! this course is for you.

It is specifically designed to guide you from A-Z with a focus on intermediate/advanced concepts that you will find very interesting through different applications and most importantly stepping-stones upon which you can build your super model and combine it with other promising types of analyses!

The CFTC publishes a goldmine every week, which is known as the Commitments of Traders Report – COT – that gauges the pulse and the feeling of the big market participants (i.e. the market movers).


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Properly understanding and analyzing this report will allow the user to forecast the trend of the chosen asset (FX, equities, commodities) for the following days, weeks, and even months.

This course is split into 4 main parts:

1.       Introduction to Market Sentiment.

2.       Framework and COT Data Analysis.

3.       Advanced Concepts & Back-testing through Python.

4.       Other Sentiment Strategies (Put-call ratio, Dark pool index, Gamma exposure index, etc).

This is an APPLIED course, meaning we will not spend too much time with the boring theoretical albeit necessary stuff. There will be occasional notes for every major section to help you refresh your knowledge as you progress in the course. I will constantly be updating the sections with new sentiment and technical methods / strategies. All of the documents and code are downloadable.

       Disclaimer: We acknowledge that trading comes with risks, and therefore, we have to stress that success in this field comes with proper risk management. No model is perfect and the views expressed in this course are only based on market sentiment analysis and are for educational purposes only. Always do your homework and let no one affect your judgement unless objective data is presented.

If you have a question/complaint (or even two), you can contact me through the Q&A section.

English
language

Content

INTRODUCTION TO MARKET SENTIMENT
Getting Started
The Different Types of Analyses
Economic Intuition 101
Conflicts & Model’s Choice Dilemma
Important: Read FIRST
Intuition of Market Sentiment
Derivatives
Our Approach
Downloading the COT Data Step-by-Step
Handling the COT Charts
Open Interest & Spreads
Notes – Part 1 Recap
FRAMEWORK AND DATA ANALYSIS
Part 2: Quick Snapshot
Introduction to Descriptive Statistics
EURUSD Statistical Analysis Template
The 3 Golden Rules
How to get the Commodities’ COT values
Application – Crude Oil
Introduction to Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Finance Extra Notes
Notes – Part 2 Recap
ADVANCED CONCEPTS & BACK-TESTING THROUGH PYTHON
Part 3: Quick Snapshot
Correlation Analysis
Commercial Consumers | Soybeans
Commercial Producers | USDCAD
Other COT Components
Cross Asset COT Technique
Downloading Anaconda
Getting Familiar with SPYDER
Numpy and Pandas basics
Performance Evaluation
Strategy 1: Fixed-Barrier COT Back-testing
Strategy 2: Variable-Barrier COT Back-testing
COT Delta Intuition
Application – Gold
Strategy 3: COT Delta Back-testing
Normalization Intuition
Strategy 4: Normalization Back-testing
Equity Sentiment COT
COT | RSI Intuition
Strategy 5: COT | RSI Silver
Beware of Technical Analysis Traps: Back-testing the RSI
Combining Technical & Sentiment Analysis
Notes – Part 3 Recap
OTHER SENTIMENT STRATEGIES
Part 4: Quick Snapshot
Downloading the GEX/DPI Data Step-By-Step
Back-testing the GEX/DPI
UMCSI – Intuition
Application – Dollar Index
ISM – Purchasing Manager’s Index
Downloading the Put-Call ratio Data Step-By-Step
Back-testing the Put-Call Ratio
The VIX from another perspective
A Discussion on Discretionary Trading
Part 1 Documents
Part 2 Documents
Part 3 Documents
Part 4 Documents
UPDATE: New Put-Call Ratio Data